In order from most important factor to consider to least important, here are the Hoops Junkie’s best practices in picking Big Dance Upsets:

1. Guard play typically carries the day in the March so look for Mid and Low-Major teams that have senior guards. This year that means teams like Western Kentucky, Winthrop, Oral Roberts, and Cal-State Fullerton have steady all-senior backcourts that have the chops to engineer first round upsets.

2. Look for teams that hit the road like hobos and played challenging non-league slates. Teams that spent November and December, playing at BCS league gyms, won’t be shocked and awed by how talented their first round opponents are. It’s pretty well known that Davidson and George Mason had murderous OOC schedules but according to Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, other teams to keep in mind are Siena (17th in OOC SOS), San Diego (33rd), and the previously mentioned Winthrop (39th) and Oral Roberts (14th).

3. Show me a Mid-Major team that has seniors who’ve been to Big Dance as underclassmen and I’ll show you a dangerous team. Winthrop, George Mason, Kent State, and Butler will not be intimidated or thrown off by playing on college hoops biggest stage.

4. As former Penn player Stephen Danley points out in today’s New York Times, teams with distinctive styles have an advantage. The nation’s foremost run-n-gun outfit Virginia Military Institute may not be in this year’s Field of 64 but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t other Mid and Low-Majors that play hoops like it’s a footrace. CSU-Fullerton, Belmont, and Boise State play as fast as they can. Tough, defensive-minded teams in this year’s field include Winthrop, George Mason, and Kent State.

5. Teams that can stroke the triple are notoriously tough outs in the Big Dance. That means that Cornell, the best three-point shooting team in the tourney — has a puncher’s chance at knocking off Stanford while the undersized Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers have the gunners — three UMBC players made 60 or more triples this season — to throw a scare into Georgetown.

6. Beware the under-seeded Mid-Major. 10-seeds like St. Mary’s and Davidson are seeded where they are only because they’re Mid-Majors. Put a team with the credentials of the Gaels or Wildcats in a BCS league and they’d be seeded somewhere from 5 to 7.

7. We’re big fans of riding a wave of momentum into the tourney so look for teams that enter the Big Dance with winning streaks. Davidson obviously comes to mind but other teams like Cornell — 16-game streak —- and Portland State —15-1 in their last 16 — are as hot as a team can be entering the tourney.

8. Look for Mid & Low-Majors that have transcendent talents. A league Player of the Year can provide that much-needed bucket when the favored squad makes its inevitable run. Players who rule their roost in the leagues that almost never get on CBS or ESPN savor the spotlight the Big Dance provides them and excel. Guys like Davidson’s Stephen Curry; Kent State’s Haminn Quaintance; Western Kentucky’s Courtney Lee; and St. Mary’s Diamon Simpson are all capable of game-changing performances.