After a regular season that’s 20 games too long, the NBA’s finest hour — the playoffs — is finally here. While some of the leagues’ biggest stars, Kobe, Kevin Garnett, and King James, may not be participating, this year’s post-season derby is one of the most eagerly anticipated in recent memory. Certainly, the fact that no less than seven teams have to be considered as legitimate title contenders makes these playoffs compelling but that it isn’t the only reason to get excited that the drudgery of the regular seas on is behind us. Consider the following:
All 16 playoff squads, with the exception of Memphis, the 8th seed in the West, who are in the playoffs because Minnesota couldn’t get it’s act together, are playing their best ball of the season. From New Jersey, the 8th seed in the East, to Phoenix, the top team in the entire league, these are teams that are looked, loaded, and raring to go.
Not only are these teams playing great ball but their also playing it at a faster and higher-scoring pace than we’ve seen since the early 1980s. Gone are the days of plodding half-court hoops that made the playoffs unwatchable for large stretches of time and back are the days of guys like Doug Moe, who believes that you can’t win if you can’t score. In fact, Moe himself is actually back, serving as an assistant coach to George Karl in Denver, and helping to transform the Nuggets into one of the NBA’s most prolific O’s.
It wouldn’t be the NBA without some drama. The difference is that the drama this year won’t be coming from LA, as it did the past several seasons. It may come from Philly, where Allen Iverson and C-Webb get another chance to show that they can play together. Similar questions surround the remade Sacto Kings and Houston Rockets.
Speaking of questions, the most important question as we head into the playoffs is who’s going to win the eight opening round playoff series. This is what I think is going to happen:
Eastern Conference
(1) Miami Heat (59-23) vs. (8) New Jersey (42-40)
Season Series: The Heat swept the Nets 3-0
The Skinny: As expected, the Shaq and Dwayne Wade-led Heat ran roughshod over the rest of the Eastern Conference. That includes the Nets, who the Heat swept three games to zip during the regular season. Fortunately for the team from the turnpike, the playoffs are very different from the regular season just as these Nets, winners of 15 of their final 20 games, are different from the group the Heat played this season.
Keep An Eye On: Richard Jefferson. The explosive Nets’ wing will be playing for the first time since he underwent surgery on his left (non-shooting) hand some four months ago. If Jefferson is even moderately effective, it’ll provide a big lift to a New Jersey squad that it’s in desperate need of a reliable third option.
Prediction: This series will go at least six games and might very well go seven. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nets win the opener on Sunday but I would be shocked if they win this series. Miami will prevail in six tightly-contested games.
(2) Detroit (54-28) vs. (7) Philly (43-39)
Season Series: Detroit won 3-1.
The Skinny: The defending champs were underwhelming through the first half of the season, going 23-18, but were nothing short of overwhelming in winning 31 of their final 41 games. The Sixers made a biggest in-season trade, acquiring C-Webb from Sacto, which was supposed to make them one of the teams to beatin the East. Well, that didn’t’ happen, as Webber has whined and pouted almost non-stop since arriving in Philly.
Keep An Eye On: C-Webb and AI. Webber is the fifth different big man the Sixers have brought in to pair with Iverson in hope of winning a title. There’s no doubt that both players are talented but they have yet to show they can play together. This series may be their last chance to do so.
Prediction: If this series were being played in January, the Sixers might have had a shot. It isn’t and the Pistons roll into the playoffs looking every bit like the team that won the championship last season. Detroit in five.
(3) Boston (45-37) vs. (6) Indiana Pacers (44-38)
Season Series: Pacers won 2-1
The Skinny: Indiana began this season with title hopes, which were extinguished in the Auburn Hills melee and subsequent season-long suspension of their stopper, Ron Artest. The Celtics entered this season with less-lofty aspirations, like making the playoffs. They finished first in the Awful Atlantic only because New Jersey was decimated by injuries. However, the trading deadline acquisition of Antoine Walker made the Celtics a much more dangerous team than they were before.
Keep An Eye On: Reggie Miller. The greatest closer in NBA playoff history gets one last chance to pull off some end of the game heroics. In order to make any of these games close enough for that, the Pacers will need Reggie to be the vintage Reggie.
Prediction: Pity the poor Paces, as the lack of a clear favorite in this year’s playoffs means that they would’ve had a pretty good chance at getting Reggie to one last NBA Finals. Without Ron Artest around and Jermaine O’Neal playing in pain, that just isn’t going to happen. But they will beat Boston in seven games.
(4) Chicago (47-35) vs. (5) Washington Wizards (45-37)
Season Series: Wizards won 2-1
The Skinny: Two of the NBA’s more surprising teams square off in what should be a highly entertaining and high-scoring affair. Unfortunately for the Bulls, forward-center Eddy Curry, one of their youthful twin towers, is out for the rest of the season due to an irregular heartbeat. His presence inside would’ve helped the Bulls guard the rim against the Wiz’s explosive trio of Gilbert Arenas, Larry Hughes, and Antawn Jamison.
Keep An Eye On: Chicago’s Ben Gordon. The Rookie and Sixth Man Of The Year candidate has put on more fourth quarter fireworks this season than any player in the NBA. His scoring off the bench will be desperately needed if the Bulls are going to keep up with the fun-n-gun Wizards.
Prediction: This will be one of the most competitive and closely-contested first round series, as these teams are evenly matched. Whichever team dictates tempo will win. My guess is that it will be Bulls. Chicago in seven.
Western Conference
(1) Phoenix (62-20) vs. (8) Memphis (45-37)
Season Series: Tied 2-2.
The Skinny: Memphis comes staggering into the playoffs like a drunk leaving a bar at closing time, having lost nine of their last 15 games, including four of their final five. The same can’t be said of the Suns, who played their best ball of the season in going 15-5 down the stretch. One of those 15 wins came at Memphis, a 97-91 Suns’ victory, which started the Grizzles late season slide.
Keep An Eye On: Steve Nash. Memphis doesn’t have the ability to cope with Phoenix’s Shawn Marion or Quentin Richardson in transition or the half-court so the best chance for Mike Fratello’s squad to win is to sag-off Nash and force him to make J’s. Don’t look for that strategy to work, as the Suns’ starting point guard is the potential MVP for a reason — he can beat you passing or shooting.
Prediction: The deep Grizzlies have enough firepower to score with Phoenix and enough bodies to run with the Suns but not enough to win more than a game. Phoenix in five.
(2) San Antonio (59-23) vs. (7) Denver (49-33)
Season Series: Tied 2-2.
The Skinny: The Spurs were their typically efficient selves this season, parlaying a 38-3 record at home into a Southwest division title. Tim Duncan was injured for the final 12 games of the season, playing limited minutes in the last four, as the Spurs were nearly overtaken by Dallas in the Southwest. Duncan says’ “he’s about 75-80%†going into this series, which means that the run-n-gun Denver Nuggets, who may have been the NBA’s best team in the second half of the season, going 26-4 since February 23.
Keep An Eye On: Denver’s Carmelo Anthony. ‘Melo and new Nuggets head coach George Karl have a fairly contentious relationship for several reasons but one of the biggest is that Karl pressures ‘Melo to play within the offense and to play hard on D. San Antonio’s stopper Bruce Bowen has the ability to frustrate and slow down ‘Melo. The onus is clearly on Anthony to show that he can lead his team and not let Bowen get into his head.
Prediction: Getting surprisingly little play from MSM analysts is the fact that Spurs are a very different team away from the Alamodome, as their pedestrian 21-20 road record attests to. One of those road losses was a 102-84 shellacking at Denver in early April. With Duncan not 100%, this is definitely a series that the Nuggets can win. Will they? Nope. But they’ll take the Spurs to a seventh game before succumbing.
(3) Seattle (52-30) vs. (6) Sacto (50-32)
Season Series: Seattle won 3-1.
The Skinny: The Sonics, who were picked to finish near the bottom of the Northwest division, are one of the league’s surprise teams, as sweet-shooting Ray Allen and sixth man Vlad Radmonovic led them to a 41-16 start. Unfortunately, the Sonics imploded down the stretch, losing 14 of their final 25 games, including 12-of-14 to teams that made the playoffs. Sacto’s situation is different. After failing to win a title, the Kings underwent an in-season makeover, which included the trade of C-Webb to Philly, that saw them emerge younger and more athletic. It’s likely to be the old hands, Mike Bibby, Bobby Jackson, and Peja Stojakovic that will determine the Kings fate.
Keep An Eye On: Peja. Sacto’s sharp-shooting forward has a deserved rep as a playoff non-performer. Without C-Webb, the Kings will run their O through Peja, who will get plenty of looks at the hoop. If he knocks those shots down, not only will he shake the playoff underachiever tag but he’ll also lead his team into the second round.
Prediction: This series has the potential to shatter NBA playoff marks for scoring and for lack of D. When two high-octane teams like this match-up, the team that can get some stops on D usually wins. That team is Sacto. Expect the Kings to win in six high-scoring and entertaining games.
(4) Dallas (58-24) vs. (5) Houston (51-32)
Season Series: Tied at 2-2.
The Skinny: It may not lack the offensive fireworks of the other first round series but this may very well be the most intriguing of the opening round series. Dallas finished the season on a tear, winning their last nine games to help rookie head coach Avery Johnson win Coach of the Month honors. The Rockets are almost as hot, riding a seven-game winning streak, which includes a 98-97 win at Phoenix and wins over playoff teams Denver, Memphis, and Seattle. Each team brings star power into this series as well. Houston features T-Mac and Yao while the Mavs counter with Dirk Nowitzki.
Keep An Eye On: Avery Johnson. Dallas’s rookie head coach didn’t get an easy draw in his first trip to the playoffs, as thanks to Tracy McGrady and Yao, Houston presents myriad problems for any team. The Mavs want to run while the Rockets want to slug it out in the half-court. It’ll be up to Johnson to make sure his team pushes tempo and to use his deep and versatile bench to wear down a Houston squad that has lots of spare parts but no real depth.
Prediction: Houston is a lot better right now than they were earlier in the season, when the T-Mac and Yao experiment seemed destined to fail. Thanks to the insertion of point guard Bob Sura into the starting line-up and some smart trades, the Rockets rallied to have a nice season. They’ll have to be content with that since Dallas is just a much better team. The Mavs will win in six.
Sphere: Related Content


April 24th, 2005 at 7:35 pm
NBA Playoffs Primer: Breaking Down The First Round
No, the drama won’t be coming from L.A. this year!…